Case studies › QBTS · RGTI
D-Wave and Rigetti report tomorrow and neither has a revenue base to defend
Two pure-play quantum companies report third-quarter 2026 results tomorrow, and the consensus revenue line for each is small enough to print on a business card: US$3.95 million for D-Wave and US$3.3 million for Rigetti.
Against market capitalisations measured in the billions, that is the whole tension. The equity is a claim on a future machine, and the income statement is a receipt for building it.
The quarter that preceded this one
Between July and September D-Wave fell 29.4% and Rigetti fell 15.7%, against a 1.7% gain in the S&P 500 and a 16.4% gain in the internet software market. Both were repriced while the index rose. That is relative de-rating, not beta.
| Line | D-Wave (QBTS) | Rigetti (RGTI) |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 revenue | $3.08m | $5.1m |
| Q2 revenue vs consensus | -19.5% | +4.68% |
| Q3 consensus revenue | $3.95m | $3.3m |
| Q3 consensus loss per share | -$0.10 | -$0.06 |
| Trailing four-quarter surprise | -153.3% avg | +8.3% avg |
The two have opposite histories on the print. D-Wave has missed in three of four quarters by an average of 153.3%. Rigetti has beaten in three of four by an average of 8.3%. Consensus expects D-Wave revenue to rise 5.6% and Rigetti revenue to rise 69%.
Where the money actually went
Q2 is the only hard evidence available, and it points in opposite directions for the two.
D-Wave's second-quarter revenue of US$3.08 million fell 0.6% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was US$37.1 million and gross margin dropped to 55.4% from 63.8%. Then, in the same release, first-half bookings of US$35.5 million, up 1,120%, and remaining performance obligations of US$40.7 million, up 668%. Commercial customers were 67.7% of first-half revenue against 16% a year earlier.
That is a book-to-bill situation. Revenue of roughly US$6 million across the half against bookings of US$35.5 million means the contracted work is not yet in the top line, and the RPO number is the size of the queue. On those figures the revenue line is a lagging indicator of a book that has already been signed.
Rigetti's second-quarter revenue of US$5.1 million rose 185.3% and beat consensus by 4.68%. The loss per share widened to 5 cents from 4 cents and missed. Cash, equivalents and available-for-sale investments were US$541.3 million at 30 June.
The growth here is largely system-related, which means lumpy and milestone-shaped. Rigetti's Q3 consensus of US$3.3 million is below its Q2 of US$5.1 million, so the consensus itself already encodes a sequential decline. Any beat has to be read against that.
The burn arithmetic
US$541.3 million of liquidity at Rigetti against a quarterly loss in the low single-digit cents, with a share count in the hundreds of millions, is a multi-year runway. D-Wave's US$37.1 million quarterly adjusted EBITDA loss is a faster clock, and the bookings conversion, if it holds, closes the gap.
Neither company is close to funding itself from operations. Both are funded from the balance sheet and, increasingly, from government programmes. That makes the risk a financing risk and not a technology risk, which is a different thing to underwrite.
Where the case breaks
For D-Wave, the case breaks if bookings fail to convert. A second quarter with RPO rising and revenue flat or falling says the contracted work is stalled in delivery, and the 1,120% bookings figure becomes a headline rather than a pipeline.
For Rigetti, it breaks if the sequential decline in consensus proves to be a trend and gross margin follows revenue down. The US$541.3 million is the buffer, and the rate at which it is drawn is the only number that matters after the print.
For both, the estimate revisions already lean the wrong way: the Q3 loss consensus widened by a cent for each over the past seven days. D-Wave carries an earnings surprise prediction that cannot resolve an upside print; Rigetti's, at minus 16.67%, does not either.
What the arithmetic says
Two companies with single-digit millions of quarterly revenue, both down double digits in a quarter where their index rose, both reporting into a widened loss consensus, one with a bookings book and one with a cash pile. There is no valuation floor under either until revenue arrives. The question tomorrow is not whether they beat by a cent. It is whether bookings become revenue.
US$6 million of first-half revenue against US$35.5 million of bookings is not a growth story yet. It is a queue. The only useful number tomorrow is the rate at which the queue moves.
Sources
Bookings, remaining performance obligations, segment mix, liquidity, revenue and margin figures are the companies' own reported second-quarter 2026 results. Consensus revenue and loss estimates and the trailing surprise averages are third-party. Quarter-to-date price moves are exchange data. All arithmetic on the Q2 base is derived and can be re-run.
Published for information only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation. This note is not prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No position is held in the securities covered.